研究 Local Consumer Commerce in the Wake of a Hurricane

一些自然灾害 (打开叠加) made national headlines in 2017, including but not limited to, Hurricanes 哈维  和 厄玛. 哈维 made l和fall near Corpus Christi, 8月25日德克萨斯州, followed by 厄玛’s l和fall at Cudjoe Key, 9月10日佛罗里达. Houston 和 Miami, two metro areas we track, were in their path. The cost of these storms was significant, 包括生命损失, damage to public health 和 safety infrastructure, 和 the destruction of durable capital assets. Estimates of the damage costs from 哈维 和 厄玛 were $125 和 $50 billion, respectively.¹ The storms also damaged short-term economic activity through the slowing of local commerce. To better underst和 the impact 和 scope of the local commerce slowdowns in these areas, the 12bet官方 研究所 leveraged the monthly Local Consumer Commerce Index, our measure of de-identified year-over-year consumer spending growth across 14 metro areas.

Local consumer commerce in the Houston metro area declined by 7.5 percent between August 2016 和 August 2017 (the 哈维 “l和fall month”). Recovery began in September 2017 (the 哈维 “recovery month”), when local commerce in Houston registered a year-over-year growth rate of 9.3%. The increase in spending by consumers at Houston businesses in the recovery month more than offset the decline in spending from the l和fall month. 飓风厄玛的影响 differed from that of Hurricane 哈维. In September 2017 (the 厄玛 “l和fall month”), local commerce in Miami declined by 3.7%. 相比之下, October 2017 (the 厄玛 “recovery month”) saw year-over-year growth of 2.4%.

Figure 1: Following their respective l和falls, Hurricanes 哈维 和 厄玛 caused steep declines in Local Commerce

The magnitude of the net spending decline in the wake of a hurricane can be seen when comparing Houston 和 Miami to the 12 other metro areas we track. In the period between January 2014 和 July 2017 (the month before 哈维’s l和fall), growth in Houston was fairly correlated with growth in other metro areas. The same could be said of Miami’s relationship to the 12 other LCC metros over the period between January 2014 和 August 2017. As can be seen in Figure 1, the arrival of the hurricanes disrupted this relationship significantly. In the l和fall months for both 哈维 和 厄玛, most metros saw higher local commerce growth than the preceding month, while Houston 和 Miami saw substantial declines.

平均, in the period between January 2014 和 July 2017, local commerce growth in Houston lagged the average growth from the 12 other LCC metros by approximately 1.一个百分点. Over the January 2014 to August 2017 period, Miami led other metros by approximately 0.4%. Figure 2 shows the magnitude of the drop in l和fall months, relative to other metros. Houston lagged the remaining LCC metros by 8.一个百分点, 和 Miami lagged by 8.两个百分点. In the recovery months that followed initial l和fall, Houston 和 Miami led the remaining cities by roughly 4.8和3.分别为2个百分点.

The initial declines in local commerce, relative to other metros, were similar in Houston 和 Miami. 然而, the storms differed in important ways, which may have led to some of the differences in distributional impact across metros. 如图3所示, 哈维 had a more direct 和 sustained impact on the Houston metro region because after the initial l和fall near Corpus Christi, 哈维 continued to pull water from the Gulf of Mexico as it traveled east along the coast. 相比之下, Hurricane 厄玛 travelled largely up the western portion of Florida, sparing (to some extent) Miami from the full brunt of the storm. 从测量的角度来看, it is important to remember that the LCCI is reported monthly, 和 these storms made their initial l和falls at different times in the month. 哈维’s initial l和fall was August 25th, which means the spending drop dominates most of the observed change in spending. 厄玛 had a different profile, making its initial l和fall in Florida on September 10. Consequently, much of 厄玛’s recovery will be included in the net monthly figure for September.

Figure 3: Approximate Storm Paths of Hurricanes 哈维 和 厄玛

While the overall effect of the storms were similar, as measured relative to growth in other LCC metros, the distribution of impact differed. We explore some of these differences below, using data from the Local Consumer Commerce summary file we make available on the 12bet官方 研究所 website. The summary file also includes growth splits by income 和 location of the consumer, 还有业务规模. Figures 4 和 5, along with Table 1, depict growth by age of the consumer in Houston 和 Miami.

Figure 4: Houston Consumers of Nearly All 年龄s Reduced 支出 in August

Figure 5: Unlike Houston, Some Consumers Continued to See Growth in Miami in the L和fall Month

Figure 6: Houston Consumers Purchased More 燃料 in August 2017 than August 2016

Figure 7: Miami Consumers Increased 支出 on Non-Durable Goods in September 2017

Natural disasters are not only a threat to life 和 property, but to the economic vibrancy of a metro region. Policy makers are often faced with the difficult task of determining where 和 when to allocate relief resources with limited data. By furnishing insights based upon the administrative data collected by 追逐 on a daily basis, the 12bet官方 研究所 hopes to provide a helpful resource for public officials, 非营利组织人员, 和 business owners seeking to support recovery from disaster.

致谢

We thank our research analyst, Bryan Kim, for his hard work 和 contributions to this research.

This effort would not have been possible without the critical support of the 12bet官方 Intelligent Solutions team of data experts, 包括加比·马拉诺, Stella Ng, 迈克尔Harasimowicz, 还有比尔·鲍尔斯比, 和 12bet官方 研究所 team members including Caitlin Legacki, 考特尼黑客, 颊严厉, Sruthi饶, Alyssa Flaschner, 朱莉Spiegelman, Natalie Holmes和Kelly Benoit.

We would like to acknowledge Jamie Dimon, 首席执行官 of 12bet官方 & Co., for his vision 和 leadership in establishing the 研究所 和 enabling the ongoing research agenda. Along with support from across the firm—notably from Peter Scher, Len Laufer, 马克斯Neukirchen, 帕特里克•Ringstroem, Joyce Chang, 和 Judy Miller—the 研究所 has had the resources 和 support to pioneer a new approach to contribute to global economic analysis 和 insight.

建议引用

法雷尔、戴安娜和小马文·沃德. “Local Consumer Commerce in the Wake of Hurricane 哈维.12bet官方研究所.