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发现
- 去找1大多数套现再融资的房主转换为利率较低的长期贷款，但由于新的贷款余额较大，每月还款额较高.
- 去找2在控制了长期趋势之后, 获得现金赎回再融资的房主收入没有变化，而通过HELOC提取股权的房主收入下降.
- 去找3支出 spiked immediately upon receiving cash and quickly tapered to a level above baseline. 一年内, 套现再融资的房主花费了清算总股本的33%(房屋价值的5%)，而拥有HELOC的房主花费了47%(房屋价值的3%)。.
- 去找4现金再融资和HELOCs的最大消费反应来自年轻房主和贷款价值比较高的房主.
- 去找5影响
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2020年12月
Approximately two thirds of American families own a home, 使房地产市场成为经济活动的重要来源和货币政策向实体经济传导的重要工具. 对大多数房主来说, their house is their most important source of wealth—an asset that can build in value as a mortgage is paid down. As such, homeowners may tap into this wealth—their home equity—when the need arises. 围绕房屋净值提取的家庭行为对宏观经济层面的消费和货币政策的有效性具有重要影响. 和, 从家庭财务的角度来看, 当房主面临收入中断或消费飙升时，负责任地清算房屋净值可以在平滑消费方面发挥重要作用.
在这份报告中, 我们使用贷款级抵押贷款服务数据结合行政存款账户数据来询问:清算房屋净值在多大程度上促进了消费者需求? 我们还研究了围绕股权提取的收入动态，以了解家庭的财务状况可能在影响他们从家中提取股权的决定中发挥的作用.
找到一个: 大多数套现再融资的房主转换为利率较低的长期贷款，但由于新的贷款余额较大，每月还款额较高.
在我们的套现再融资样本中, 我们发现，尽管有较低利率和较长期限的贷款进行再融资，但最大的房主群体最终每月还款额更高. This higher monthly payment was the result of withdrawing cash through a larger loan. Homeowners appeared to be prioritizing a need for a large amount of cash immediately over a lower monthly payment over time.
|
Pre-refinance |
Post-refinance |
中位数差异 |
本金余额 |
$144,769 |
$195,000 |
$46,429 |
利率 |
4.50% |
4.00% |
-0.38 pp |
期限(年) |
24.2 |
30.0 |
3.7 |
每月的付款 |
$881 |
$1,091 |
$125 |
注:所有数值均为中位数. The median is calculated for each column separately so the median difference is not necessarily equal to the difference between the medians.
资料来源:12bet官方研究所
发现二: 在控制了长期趋势之后, 获得现金赎回再融资的房主收入没有变化，而通过HELOC提取股权的房主收入下降.
Using an event study framework that accounts for time trends, we find that those who drew equity via HELOCs experienced falling income around the time of a draw, whereas the path of income for those who cash-out refinanced was flat. 这些模式帮助我们了解哪些房主使用这些不同的产品来获得房屋净值，以及在什么情况下使用这些产品——尽管需要注意的是，这些结果是特定于利率上升的环境的, where refinancing is less appealing than it is when interest rates are falling.
发现三: 支出 spiked immediately upon receiving cash and quickly tapered to a level above baseline. 一年内, 套现再融资的房主花费了清算总股本的33%(房屋价值的5%)，而拥有HELOC的房主花费了47%(房屋价值的3%)。.
发现四: 现金再融资和HELOCs的最大消费反应来自年轻房主和贷款价值比较高的房主.
发现五: 影响
我们的研究结果表明，促进房屋净值提取的政策可能会产生重大的宏观经济影响，因为消费对房屋净值的这种流动性的反应很大.
出于这个原因, 消除房屋净值提取的摩擦和障碍将改善货币政策通过住房财富效应渠道(因为房屋净值提取是将房价升值与消费增加联系起来的机制)和再融资渠道(因为对手头额外现金的支出反应补充了对降低月供的反应)向实体经济的传导。.
Significant barriers have kept equity withdrawal activity low since the Great Recession, including supply and demand factors (see discussion in Farrell et al. 2020年)以及有充分证据的再融资摩擦. 与历史上的高水平相比，目前的低水平股权提取活动意味着，如果消除其中一些障碍，允许更多的股权提取, there could be large macroeconomic effects on consumption. Indeed, Black Knight estimates that as of the first quarter of 2020, there is $6.5 trillion of home equity that is available to be liquidated among homeowners with a mortgage.
如果房主拥有大量的房屋净值，但面临经济不确定性，那么从房屋中变现财富的能力可能尤为重要, 就像在covid -19引发的经济衰退期间一样. Households are sitting on historically large quantities of home equity and, 与大衰退形成鲜明对比, have not seen their home equity positions erode thus far. Given the importance of cash flow dynamics and liquidity for consumption and staying current on debt payments, continued access to home equity could play an important role in helping homeowners weather economic downturns by providing needed liquidity. 在当前的利率环境下, refinancing in particular could provide liquidity through lower monthly payments and/or a large infusion of cash. 当然, the benefits of liquidating home equity must be balanced against maintaining responsible lending practices, 在不确定的经济环境下，这就更加困难了.
Understanding the inherent complexities the private sector faces in maintaining access to home equity withdrawal for homeowners, 公共部门可能希望考虑政府支持的替代方案，允许房主在收入中断时获得房屋中的非流动性财富，以避免对家庭或整个抵押贷款市场造成更大的影响. 联邦担保的房屋净值产品或类似于2000年代末房地产市场崩溃后实施的房屋可负担再融资计划(HARP)的计划，可能会帮助更多从再融资中受益的房主实际这样做.
数据资产:
From a universe of more than 16 million 追逐 mortgage customers between 2012 and 2018, 我们创建了超过50个样本,000名客户(1)通过“大通对大通”套现再融资或“大通房屋净值信贷额度”(HELOC)从他们的房屋中提取资产, (2)同时拥有大通银行定期存款账户.
